Reverse Implied Odds

Reverse Implied Odds

I love when other players lecture me. I was playing against Book Poker General, who has been playing ABC poker in a six handed game for the last 30 minutes. The play went like this.

BPG is sitting UTG with $115. I have $65. BPG raises to $2.50. I call with 8d9d. One caller behind. Pot is $8.

Flop is 5s7dJs. I have a double belly buster. A 6 or 10 makes my straight.

BPG bets $8 at the $8 pot. The pot sized bets means that the pot is only paying 2-1. I do have outs, 8 to the straight and a backdoor flush draw. Plus, I believe I have an opportunity to steal the pot from this donk if a spade comes off. I call.

The player behind folds.

The turn is a 2s. BPG checks. Pot is $24. I go for the steal, throwing out a $12 bet. I expect he might call this with an As, but if another spade doesn't come on the river, I feel very confident that this is my pot. He does call. I immediately put him on a big pair with only one spade.

Now, this is the key to the later confrontation I have with BPG. Could he possibly have a hand like AsQs or AsKs? Yes. It is possible that he could have that hand. Would he have played the hand the way he did? Maybe but I don't think so. The big bet on the flop made it obvious to me that he was protecting a made hand. Given that, I discounted the possibility that he was on a spade draw. The bet was not right for that hand with this player. He was tight and played by the book. The book says deny odds to the draw so he denied the draw odds. It seemed obvious to me. I check that one into my memory, HE DOES NOT HAVE A SPADE DRAW. I am playing the hand as if he doesn't.

So, even when the spade came off, I knew he didn't have the flush or that it was at least VERY unlikely. I felt I could steal this pot with a bet unless he had the AsA or KsK in which case he would call. He called.

What I am getting at is that the odds were a lot deeper than the obvious ones - pot paying 2-1 and me drawing at 5-1 on the flop. On that flop call, I had a ton of outs that weren't even really outs. Then on the turn bet, it was really just bad luck that he had a big spade in his hand. He very well might not have and I am confident he would have folded in that situation. I only needed to win that turn bet one time in three to make money on it. AND, I was very friggin confident that he did not have a flush. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

The river makes my straight. It is the 10d.

BPG checks and I make a bet he can call, $15 at the $48 pot. He calls and turns over KsK. I win the hand with my straight.

If I had missed my straight and a spade didn't come off, I probably would have made a bet that he couldn't call, my stack. I am very very confident he would not have called that bet.

Regardless, I was very pleased with the way I played this hand for reasons that I highlight above. It worked out for me, but I think there are a ton of other ways it could also have worked out. It is not a text book play, but I still liked it and am very confident that I made money making plays on every street: the flop call, the turn steal attempt, and the river value bet.

BPG: "wow. nice".

I assume that he is being sarcastic.

HERO: "TY"

HERO: "I love double belly busters. I can't get away from them"

It is true that I do love them, but it isn't the only reason I called as we now know. My play seems pathetic from the outside until you take back the layers. Anyway, I hope to get him going.

BPG: "I see that"

There is a long pause.

BPG: "Nice bet on the turn"

HERO: "Oh, that. I thought I could steal it."

BPG: "Ah"

There is a long pause.

BPG: "And that flop call, 4-1 for 2-1. What was that."

I don't bother to correct him. It was 5-1 for 2-1, but he had the right idea.

HERO: "Was it that bad? Oh, I didn't know."

BPG: "I thought you made that flush."

HERO: "And you called anyway?"

Longer pause

BPG: "Do you even know what reverse implied odds are?"

I do.

HERO: "I don't read poker books."

BPG: "Keep playing that way"

HERO: "They confuse me"

HERO: "I just play and win and then play again. It is not rocket science."

BPG: "Keep it up, you will go broke soon enough."

HERO: "I don't really know what implied odds are, let alone REVERSE implied odds."

BPG: "That is obvious."

HERO: "Did I play that hand badly."

BPG: "No, just keep doing what you are doing."

HERO: "Thanks, you too."

Reverse implied odds refers to the concept that when you are drawing to your hand, there is the chance that some of your apparent outs really help your opponent also. You can make your hand but he can also make a better hand. It is an important concept because when it happens, you pay off in a big way. You have trapped yourself and it costs you dearly. So, the implied odds of it happening really benefit your opponent.

BPG was referring to the fact that if I caught my straight but he also caught his flush that I would have to pay off. Basically he was saying that I was stupid for drawing because the wrong card would kill me.

Fair enough.

Basically, on the turn bet, I wasn't drawing to 8 outs. I was drawing to 6 outs and the other two could kill me. Also, he might already have the flush in which case all of my outs would kill me by his reverse implied odds comment. True that. Except, he did't have the flush. I knew that or at least was wildly confident that he did not. What he didn't know is that I wasn't drawing to 8 cards that made my straight. I was drawing to EVERY non spade in the deck because I was so confident that I could win this hand on the river if a spade didn't come off. The tiny chance that he already had the flush was well worth taking the shot at being able to win this hand with EVERY non spade in the deck on the river.

I guess I was looking at the reverse reverse implied odds. Joke, there is no such thing. But you get the idea.

And, if anyone didn't understand reverse implied odds, it was him. With his turn call he was only calling with the K high flush draw. What if I had the ace. Would he have to pay that off. What if he hit and I already had the ace with some likely holdings like AsQs. What then? That is what reverse implied odds is about. That is what actually happened. He is the one who didn't understand them.

I don't know why, but I find these types of hands amazingly interesting. Reading a concept and understanding a concept are completely different things. Understanding the game beyond the book level is a hard step to take. The game is a lot deeper than what can be captured in a book. And players who don't understand this aren't going to have long term success. At least that is my take.

He couldn't know my logic to the way I played that hand, but he made an assumption that was wrong. Hopefully, he put a few notes on me down and we will meet again.