Poker is like...

... a driving lesson from my Dad.

When my father taught me to drive he put me to a test. He said, "You are never allowed to pass on a two lane road."

I objected, “But dad, it is perfectly legal to pass on a two lane road when the line is dashed.”

“I realized that,” he said, “but YOU are not allowed to do it.”

“That’s crazy. Why not?” I asked.

To which he devised this test. We took our little driving test onto the nearest windy two lane road we could find. We drove on it until I came up behind a slower car. He then asked me to tell him every time I thought it was safe to pass. I did really well, getting it correct something like 49 out of 50 times.

He said, "Like I said, you are never allowed to pass on a two lane road."

"BUT DAD!," I protested, "I was right 49 out of 50 times!"

My dad said, "But son, you are dead now!"

In poker, making the Big Bluff is the same idea. It is going to win you a few hands. You will win a little bit most times when you make the Big Bluff. That little bit will feel really good, like shaving 3 minutes off the drive to your friends house because you blew by granny on Kettlebridge Road. You have pulled a fast one and the fractional gain feels so much better than it actually should. But, every now and then, when you least expect it, you will find yourself driving headon into the nuts.

A bluff doesn’t have to be huge to win. So the question becomes, why risk everything for such small gains? The player that put that beat on me re-raised all-in with NOTHING, after I had already raised the flop. That player used the Big Bluff, and sure enough, there was a truck coming his way.